Israeli politics for dummies (2015 edition) – the morning after

Just a week ago, I’ve published a summary of the Israeli political system titled “Israeli politics for dummies (2015 edition)”. And its so good to be able to say “told you so”. The opinion polling in the run-up to the elections has failed spectacularly, again. This failure includes the exit polls, who predicted a draw between Likud and Zionist Union, with 27 seats for each – the outcome was… slightly different.

Benjamin Netaniyahu might keep his job after all.

The exit polls

Party name – results {exit polls} (last preliminary polls) [current number of seats]

Likud – 30 {27} (21) [31 – together with Yisrael Beiteinu]
Benjamin Netaniyahu, like a phoenix, has risen again from the ashes, and stands a real chance of retaining his seat as a PM. The clear winner of these elections, Likud has beaten the polls for who knows which time. In football they say “you play for 90 minutes and the Germans win”. In Israeli politics, apparently, you wait for the final results and Likud wins.

Zionist Union – 24 {27} (24) [21 – with Hatnua]
Isaac Herzog, the darling of the left, son of a President, the leader of the Zionist Union wakes up to a massive hangover. His campaign to oust Benjamin Netaniyahu seems to have been fruitless, despite support from pretty much everyone, including Barack Obama. Obama increasingly turns into King Midas, with the slight difference that everything he touches turns not into gold, but into shit. Still can’t eat it, and it smells. Perhaps Obama should stop supporting people.

The Joint Arab List – 13 {13} (13) [11-divided among 3 parties]
Ayman Odeh, the head of the Joint List, will not be heading the opposition as a unity government of Likud and Zionist Union seems unlikely, which means the Zionist Union will lead the opposition. The Arabs of Israel have shown their true colours by refusing to pretend to support the Zionist left, making the Joint Arab List the third largest party in the Knesset. Whether their elected leaders will actually start taking responsibility, instead of shouting from the sidelines, remains to be seen.

Yesh Atid – 11 {12} (12) [19]
Yair Lapid is the shlemiel of these elections. Crash and burn – no other words. Having pulled the plug out of the cabinet Yesh Atid (“There is a future”), can now change its name into “No Future”.

Jewish Home – 8 {8} (11) [12]
Naftali Bennett was the first person who Benjamin Netaniyahu has called after the exit polls. The Jewish Home has paid the price for keeping Likud in power, but Netaniyahu will reward its political frenemies.

Kulanu – 10 {10} (9) [0]
Moshe Kahlon considers himself a longstanding member of both Israel’s “national camp” and its “social camp”, so he can be appropriately described as a national-socialist. Not the best of associations, but he’s got only himself to blame here. His populist agenda has put him in the head of a major political party. Based on the exit polls, Kulanu was in the position to make or break governments. The final results though give Bibi a wide array of options to choose from, and Kulanu will have to work hard to prove its a reliable partner.

Shas – 7 {7} (7) [11]
Aryeh Deri is the other phoenix of Israeli politics. Convicted for corruption, he served major jail time, returned to head Shas, and has split with former “crown prince” Eli Yishai. The split has left Shas critically injured but alive. Yishai seems to have bet “all in” and lost (see below).

United Torah Judaism – 6 {6} (6) [7]
Yaakov Litzman‘s ultraorthodox party was left out of the previous government. This time, things might be different. But there are long-terms concerns. The huge increase in potential voters due to explosive birth rates in the ultraorthodox community has not increased the party’s political power. Is the youth secretly voting against the advice of the Rabbi’s?

Yisrael Beiteinu – 6 {5} (5) [together with Likud]
Avigdor Lieberman, Israel’s Foreign Minister and the left’s favourite boogie man, has all the reasons to be pleased. And he will probably be rewarded for his support of Bibi by being offered any post he wishes (Minister of Defence, that is).

Meretz – 5 {5} (5) [6]
Zahava Gal-On is the first casualty of the results. Barely passing the electoral threshold, she admitted failure and resigned. With the Arab support waning, the party is increasingly out of touch with reality. Its most vocal supporter, the antisemitic Jew, Haaretz writer Gideon Levi has already said that “if this is what the nation wants, we need a new nation”. With this kind of attitude Meretz will not be in the next Knesset.

Yachad – 0 {0} (4) [0]
The Israeli extreme right has learned nothing from the mistakes of the past. In 1992, Tehiya has just missed on seats in the 13th Knesset, leading to the loss of the right-block’s majority and indirectly causing the disaster of the Oslo Agreements. Exactly as I thought last week, the extreme right, this time as “Yachad”, just failed to pass the electoral threshold. Again. The right-block is still victorious, but not thanks to Yachad.

The final results

When all the votes will be counted, the picture might still look different. The Bader-Offer method and the surplus-votes agreements can add or subtract a seat or two, just tipping off the balance of power. But the changes will be minor, if any. What’s next?

The coalitions

Since no party has the majority, a coalition government has to be formed. And its not as simple as the largest party providing the PM. After consulting the fraction leaders, the President assigns the task of forming a government on one of the MP’s. That person has to try and put together a coalition, that is to say, find at least 61 MP’s to have a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Here are some possible arrangements:

National Unity Government – Likud-Zionist Union-Yesh Atid/Kulanu/both – 65/64/75 seats
The exit polls indicated this a likely scenario, albeit one that would require the partners to swallow a huge amount of pride and forget an even bigger amount of pre-election insults. The final result, though, is Likud’s resounding victory, and a right-wing coalition is much more likely.

Same-same but (a bit) different – Likud-Yesh Atid-Kulanu-Jewish Home-Yisrael Beiteinu – 65 seats
Presuming that the 10 seats of Kulanu are gained from the losses of Likud and Yesh Atid, the partners in the previous coalition have now together approximately the same amount of seats they had before the elections. Find the coalition agreement from the previous elections, re-print it and put the same people back on the same posts. Probably the cheapest option and apparently what the voters want. With 5 members, perhaps a bit too wobbly to be a first choice. And Yesh Atid is not exactly Bibi’s favourite after they brought down his last cabinet from the inside.

Anyone but Bibi – Zionist Union-Yesh Atid-Kulanu-Jewish Home-Israel Beiteinu – 59 seats
Based on the exit polls, there was a possibility that in an attempt to be true to its name, the Zionist Union could try and forge a union of Zionists with centrist, right secular and mildly religious parties. This betrayal of its traditional ally Meretz would not go down well with the party’s left wing, but again – its politics, so a scenario that includes a betrayal was actually more, not less, likely. The final results mean that the Zionist Union will not be forming the coalition, as there is almost no possible way in which it could get a majority.

Left-winged with a vengeance – Zionist Union-Joint Arab List-Yesh Atid-Kulanu-Meretz – 63 seats
Theoretically, a left-leaning coalition is possible. In reality, the Joint Arab List will not sit in a Zionist government, and even if it would, Kulanu would probably refuse to join to such a coalition.

All-right – Likud-Kulanu-Jewish Home-Shas-United Torah-Yisrael Beiteinu – 67 seats
This is the coalition that is most likely at the moment, as the Zionist Union and Yesh Atid are too shell-shocked to be even considered and have said too many times they won’t sit in Bibi’s government. But the right-religious-nationalist camp is splintered and shattered. And there’s no love lost between its members. Besides, a coalition of 6 parties that can be toppled by any of its members – such a house of cards is too difficult even for Bibi to build and hold together. And satisfying the substantial financial demands of the ultraorthodox parties and the national-socialist populist agenda of Kulanu (pun intended) might break the back of Israel’s economy.

So Israeli legislative elections 2015 – drama? Yes. Surprises? Plenty. Newcomers? In abundance. Real change? No. The winners are the same (Likud), the losers too (Labour and extreme right). When are the next elections?

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2 Comments

Filed under Europe, Work

2 responses to “Israeli politics for dummies (2015 edition) – the morning after

  1. The actual results are even better. We fucked ’em up, yo!

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