US 2016 Elections – from a small European country’s perspective

Just a few days until the US Presidential Elections. From a Small European Country the big circus on the other side of the pond seems unreal, like a Reality TV freak show. I guess its partly because most small European countries are governed by multi-party parliaments, where coalition governments are necessarily formed to achieve a majority. This usually softens the rough edges in politics, at least after the elections. The American “winner takes all” system creates a different vibe and a much more personal election race.

Which brings me to the personality of the candidates. I and many other Europeans wonder how and why the proud American democracy comes up with two such losers to compete for the most important office on the planet. Not only that, both are accompanied by VP candidates that are designed to be absolutely anonymous to the point of being interchangeable without anyone noticing. By now, the race is not about who’s the most suitable candidate – its obvious both are completely incompetent and shouldn’t be allowed to be president of anything except a Florida condo association. Its about who is the least repelling.

In the blue corner – an older, frailer version of Bill Clinton (how’s that for democracy – having two families run the country among themselves?), mired in corruption scandals and elected via a highly dubious process in her party, defeating a visibly crippled candidate, who obviously stood no chance in the national elections. In the red corner – a walking scandal with the emotional maturity of a 5-year old (“No, you’re the one that’s unfit” – yes, Donald, and why not add to it “My Shwartz is bigger than yours” – oh, I forgot, you already said that) and the credibility of Comical Ali. Come on, America, is that really the best you’ve got?

In all honesty, I don’t like Hillary Clinton. Few people do, not even her own husband it seems. My guess is that any Republican candidate would have taken this election by a huge margin with Hillary as the opponent. Anyone but The Donald. The dude looks more and more like a Democratic conspiracy to make Hillary look good. I never thought I’d say it, but with The Donald as the alternative, even I prefer Hillary Clinton in the Oval Office.

Every time he seems to be on his way up, The Donald manages to ruin his chances with an almost supernatural mastery. On the other hand, despite his ridiculousness, he still stands a chance to win. Which is sort of funny, in the way watching YouTube videos of crashing skateboarders is funny. Only this time its the only superpower in the world with a huge arsenal of nuclear weapons that’s going to crash on its balls and land on its head. I do wonder what else The Donald has to do or say to discourage the people that still think that voting for the political equivalent of Armageddon is a good idea.

A not so splendid isolation

Never was so much messed up for so many by so few. That pretty much sums the Brexit experience.

The post-Brexit referendum reality turned out to be worse than the gloomiest predictions. British stocks have taken a beating, the pound fell through a dark hole and the repercussions are being felt around Europe and the world. Nevertheless, these are the first panic reactions and it is best to wait for a while and see if things will be settling down. The long-term consequences are still unclear, but as a mental experiment, it is useful to try and catch a glimpse of what the future holds, based  on current trends. Fasten your seat belts, hold on to your hats and join me as we fast forward to… let’s say the year 2020.

Independence
The main slogan of Leave was “taking our country back”. What they did not mention was that “back” meant “300 years back”. Brexit meant independence alright. Scottish independence. As the negotiations between UK and the EU lead to nothing, Scotland voted to leave and declared its independence. Since it had already implemented all EU regulations and satisfied all demands, Scotland was welcomed immediately into the EU, on the condition it will join the Euro zone within 5 years. Empowered by Scotland’s success, Northern Ireland held  a similar referendum, with an extra question – join Ireland or become an independent state. They joined Ireland. Welsh nationalism saw a surge after Wales’ surprise victory at Euro 2016. English-Welsh tensions are reaching boiling point, as both countries are set to meet in the semi-finals of Euro 2020 at Wembley. Oddly, these developments “fix” the old mismatch. Scotland, England, Northern Ireland and Wales were always members of UEFA and played international football while technically not being fully independent. As the UK and Britain are now history, the football countries now match UN member countries.

The economy
What economy? The economy of England has been annihilated. London banks left to Frankfurt, Paris, Dublin and Amsterdam. The credit rankings of England were slashed, leading to massive rise in national debt and falling pound caused a runaway inflation, only held in check by plummeting housing prices. Having failed to negotiate a trade agreement with the EU, England is now facing steep tariffs and taxes, pushing up the prices for imported goods like food and medicine. With the supply of Europe’s brightest students and staff to English universities cut off, tech companies are fleeing to the continent. Chinese, Indian and American students also no longer come, not wanting to study in a country that is cut off from its continent.

Immigration
Oh my. Brexit did stop EU immigration into England. With no agreement in place, EU citizens in England were given two years to apply for a job permit or leave. Not that most of them wanted to live any longer in a country plagued by the biggest recession in 300 years. EU countries each set their own rules with regard to English residing there. Most were lenient, bot some viewed the English pensioners as an easy prey and a cash cow, imposing new taxes on their savings and property. Many retirees were unable to meet the new regulations and returned to England, putting an extra strain on the NHS, already desperately understaffed after the doctors and nurses left to the EU. Tensions in Northern Ireland and Scotland caused massive English immigration into England, with the best and most capable choosing for Canada and Australia instead. Young and educated English are massively immigrating to Ireland, Scotland and mainland Europe, usually via the “Scottish route”, where they discover their Scottish roots that grant them the right to Scottish citizenship and free movement in the EU. The flight of the creative class has left parts of London, Manchester and other English cities ghost towns, only partly filled by remigrating pensioners.

All this is of course a doom scenario. The worse that could happen. But I’m afraid even 1/10th of the above will be devastating for England, Britain and possible Europe as well.

I’m sorry, Boris…

In a few months, maybe even just a few weeks, Boris Johnson, PM, will be in Brussels, knocking on the door of the office of Jean-Cleadue Juncker, President of the European Commission.

– Come in, Boris (says JC).

-I come to negotiate (goes Boris).

-The terms of your surrender?

-Ha ha, very funny, JC. No, the terms of our new trade agreement.

-Oh, well, it was worth a shot. Have you handed in the forms that go with the application to withdraw from the EU, according to Article 50?

-Erhmmm… No, I haven’t. Is it really necessary?

-Well, Boris, let me see what I can do for you (pretends to be typing on his computer). I’m sorry, Boris, but COMPUTER SAYS NO!

At which point all other government leaders hiding in the corridor and eavesdropping through the door can’t hold themselves and burst in roaring laughter.

I hope someone will be smart enough to install a hidden camera. The look on Boris’ face – priceless.