Four years ago, as Gibraltar became a member of UEFA, I welcomed it as the newest European country. In that post, I’ve tried my hand at predicting the next political entity to become a European country by passing the UEFA membership test. Since then, Kosovo joined UEFA in May 2016, becoming the newest small European country. Scotland almost made it, but the Scottish independence referendum flopped. Maybe in the Brexit fallout Scotland will have another chance. However, since Scotland already is a member of UEFA, I count it as an independent country, so as far as I’m concerned Scottish independence vote would not change much.
Europe would not be what it is without a constant resurrection of ancient political rivalries. And yesterday, Catalonia, another potential newest country on my to-watch list, declared independence. Back in 2013 I guessed Catalonia would not dare make the run for freedom, but the chicken game the Catalan independence movement has been playing with Madrid has apparently forced both sides to call each other’s bluff. Whether Catalonia will indeed gain the ultimate recognition (UEFA membership) remains to be seen. But if I was the PM of Belgium, the next country on my list to split into smaller independent entities, I’d be very, very worried.